What's the deal with summer/wyvern???

[AXIOS]

a very short while ago, summer commons ended at nearly 20 dollars.
the last 2 months or so, they end up in the 50's-60's
NORMAL COMMONS!!

Also the wyvern backed card, 30 maybe 40, now

around 60!!

why this uproar in these cards?

If this continues i might sell my summer cheese.
see what i´ll get for my disintegrate, fireball, lighnting bolt and kird ape.

[rg]

Yep.
It's the same with AA cards and other rarities.
Did you also notice that this trend started at the same time this forum had an increase in popularity and new members?
And look at the high bidders, they are often the same already known. If not members they likely are lurkers.
e.g. if running auctions are posted here or already ended auctions are discussed you can watch an increased demand on ebay, which means the next auction ends much higher...

[squt]

I think there's a trend with rare cards, and it's biting me in the ass whilst I try to complete my beta set:  Those of us that learned how to play MTG in College 8-10 years ago are finally getting to the point of our lives where we have MONEY to spend on this crap.  Thus, we're willing, and able to spend silly amounts on cardboard.  

squt

[silver.paladin]

Thus, we're willing, and able to spend silly amounts on **colored** cardboard.  

squt

[rg]

I think there's a trend with rare cards, and it's biting me in the ass whilst I try to complete my beta set:  Those of us that learned how to play MTG in College 8-10 years ago are finally getting to the point of our lives where we have MONEY to spend on this crap.  Thus, we're willing, and able to spend silly amounts on cardboard.  

squt

and this kiktal1 has a lot of it ... look at this Gotta Archangel i bought one some weeks ago from a german seller for less than a third

But your are right ... if we only kept some sealed displays from that time as retirement pension  ;)

[hammr7]

As a veteran of the ups and downs with baseball cards, this trend can be either very healthy or very unhealthy for the MTG collecting community.   If you want the hobby to grow, you probably want the healthy alternative.  If you want to finish your own collection, you probably want the unhealthy alternative.

When any collectible group goes mainstream, it attracts a much larger group of participants.  With Magic, the original collectors were the players, and a few people into the artwork or the Tolkien-esque aspects of the cards.  

The current upsurge in collecting now includes hard-core collectors (since Magic is relatively inexpensive compared to other similar collectibles), nostalgists (who played a bit, but could never afford the "big" cards), the old and newer generation of players, and the casual speculators (the yard sale searchers, etc.)  These are in addition to the number of dealers involved in the collectible.

For a collectible field to grow in a healthy manner, you need a dedicated core of collectors (both pure collectors, and if applicable, players).  There need to be ways to verify (authenticate) the product.  Industry groups and / or trade shows help.  Finally, consistant information regarding both products and oddities needs to be obtainable.

All of these criteria are currently being met in the Magic trading community.  Sites such as Crystal Keep and Magic Rarities are consolidating the information regarding regular sets, rarities, and anomolies.  Members of the Rarities and MOTL are begining to police sites like eBay (the foremost market for Magic collectibles) for fraudulent cards and sellers.  Please note that my description of "authentication" does not necessarily mean grading services like PSA (My experiences with them in baseball cards was not positive).  EBay serves as a sort of continuous trade show.  Many casual players from the past are now able to purchase the older cards they couldn't (causing their prices to increase).  

Magic has a number of other things going for it.  It is a collectible that can also be played (flipping baseball
cards isn't the same), and the older version - type 1 - of the game is increasingly popular.  The release of the Tolkien movies has increased interest in the genre.  Unlike most "popular" collectibles, Magic has an active international following.  Wizards of the Coast has developed a number of "beginner" games that continuously feed new players into Magic.

So what makes growth in a collectible "unhealthy"? In a word, speculation.  There are more than a few people out for a quick buck.  They will try to corner some aspect of a collectible market, and then overpromote and overhype whatever they can.  Unless the core collecting group is sincere (and doesn't mind value swings), the speculators can build prices for a collectible up to the point where it collapses.  If the items show up on the Home Shopping Network or QVC, you know its in trouble in terms of pricing.

Baseball cards imploded in the late 1980's.  There was mass overproduction of cards beginning in 1981.  Collectors from the 1950s and 1960s became professionals, with enough money to re-enter the hobby, which drove up prices.  The rise of value in "rookie cards", combined with the entry of well-funded speculators, drove prices far beyond sustainable levels.  By 1990 the market had crashed completely.  Today, most of the old material (pre 1975) has regained much of its 1985 value.  The newer material, however, still sells for pennies on the dollar.

A more recent event was Pokemon cards.  The players were kids, but the buyers were adults.  Speculators stepped in, and a hysteria developed.  Within a year the speculators drove prices to astronomical levels, made their money and ran, and the kids got bored.  Anyone who looks at Pokemon sales on eBay will see that there are thousands of auctions, but 99% are for virtually no money.  The bad taste may prove fatal for future Pokemon collecting, although today it is an extremely affordable hobby.

The Magic collectible market currently seems to be progressing in a healthy manner.  The price inflation is primarily centered in old cards and rarities.  Much of the inflation can be accounted for by the lowered value of the dollar.  This progression will lead to sustainably higher prices and a healthy growth in the number of collectors.  Unfortunately it could mean higher prices for the items we need.

Hopefully speculation won't overtake Magic as a collectible.  I don't think there are enough older "money" cards available to the pressures of speculators.  If prices on all magic cards spike sharply, however, be on the lookout for a later crash.  It happened to stamps in the 1960's, coins in the 1970's and in the items described above.  

[Tha_Gunslinga]

The bad taste may prove fatal for future Pokemon collecting, although today it is an extremely affordable hobby.

Pokemon is dead.  Totally dead.  Dead and gone.  Trust me; I played.


That was one incredible post, btw.  What's your position in the industry, that you know all this?
(not being disrespectful, just curious)

[AXIOS]

Pokemon is dead.  Totally dead.  Dead and gone.  Trust me; I played.


That was one incredible post, btw.  What's your position in the industry, that you know all this?
(not being disrespectful, just curious)

You played Pokemon???  :D

[Tha_Gunslinga]

You played Pokemon???  :D

That's how I got into Magic.  I still have a few Pokemon misprints.  No crimps, unfortunately.

[TerraFrost]

nice post, hammr7! :)

[hammr7]

What's your position in the industry, that you know all this?

I guess some of this should go in the "real job" post.  My knowledge in collectibles, like my knowledge in printing, is a result of life experiences.  

I have been a life-long collector.  I started as a kid with baseball cards (well before the hysteria) and progressed to magic after being exposed to the game.  My father was also a collector, of coins and stamps.  Through his and my experiences I've seen the trends which I discussed above.  

My academic background is in the areas of engineering and business.  I spent years managing the process engineering and  optimization functions for five major plastic and paper printing facilities.  

I later got involved in business management for two high tech equipment firms.  

I'm currently a consultant on Supply Chain Management issues.  When not overly occupied by my fantasy baseball league and my magic collection I also teach business courses at the college level.

[victorcamp]

I'm sure you're familiar with FIFO and LIFO, but do you know what OSWO is?

[hammr7]

I'm sure you're familiar with FIFO and LIFO, but do you know what OSWO is?

Sure, but the first two are accounting standards for costing inventory, while OSWO (Oh **** were out) is the "panic" response (emotional and otherwise) to underestimating the cost of stockouts in your Inventory (Supply Chain Management) calculations.  If stockouts aren't important then OSWO never matters.  And if it doesn't matter, it doesn't exist.

[sylvanstu]

do you guys think the prices going up are do to the less amounts of gaming stores theese days i used to have about 10 in a 5 mile radius of my house now i travel no less then 10 to the closest one to me. i think this is contributing to the higher prices a little

[TerraFrost]

although i don't really buy cards from local stores, anymore, the few stores i used to go to that used to sell singles are no more.  i suspect the reason for this and for what you describe is that online stores are providing too much competition.  why go out of your way to go to a so-called brick and mortor store that might not even have what you're looking for when you could just buy, online, from the convenience of your home?

at first glance, this would seem to be a reduction of competition, which is generally regarded as a bad thing, as it makes collusion easier, but...  because ebay can turn pretty much anyone into a seller, i believe there's still plenty of competition to be had.  it's now just taking different forms than it used to take.